Ten Observations From The Georgia Dome

   1. Did you anticipate a blowout after the first possession by each team? Three-and-out for Alabama, an eye-blink touchdown drive by Florida.

   2. What was more unlikely than a long, two-play scoring march by plodding Alabama?

   3. What on earth was the Bama special teams coach thinking on the fake field goal without its real kicker on the field?

   4. Was there ever a more crucial bonehead play than Javier Arenas catching the kickoff and stepping out at the four-yard line, which allowed the Gators to break a tie before halftime?

   5. Why did Urban Meyer go to the locker room with three timeouts in his pocket? Couldn't the quick-strike Gators have gotten into field-goal range?

   6. How many shifts of momentum did you count? At least six, right?

   7. Did those who gamble on Alabama (plus 10 points) kiss Meyer on the TV screen when his sideline infraction could have turned the last Gator touchdown drive into a field goal, which would have put Florida up by seven instead of 11?

   8. Can you now appreciate the value of Percy Harvin to Florida -- by his absence, seeing as how the Gators offense got little out of their running backs?

   9. Are Florida's reliable receivers the most underappreciated part of the team?

   10. Did you notice how the scouting report on John Parker Wilson proved true: Put him in passing situations and he cannot beat you.

   And this bonus observation:

   10. Didn't this game achieve the impossible by nearly living up to its billing?  

  

And Your SEC Champion Is . . .

   I've seen Florida's offense treat defenses like they were paper mache. I've seen the college quarterback of the decade in blue and orange. I've seen a bright -- and, just as important, flexible -- shape and mold an offense to match his players' abilities.

   I cannot pick against the Gators and Urban Meyer. They have more weapons than Alabama. And Crimson Tide quarterback John Parker Wilson, who is effective when defenses are stacked against the run, will face pressure like he's never seen.

   Now, for the point spread, which has climbed a half-point back to 10: I've seen too many spectacular teams expected to run roughshod over unflashy foes get dragged into a scrum. Romps happen to squads without stellar athletes and play-makers. Bama has both.

   Yard-eaters Percy Harvin and Chris Rainey probably will play for Florida, but injuries will keep them from reaching high gear. Tim Tebow's Heisman Trophy sequel has equaled the original, though not without their help.

   Admittedly, I've witnessed many games that have turned from anticipated classics into actual duds.  In this, the most titillating SEC Championship ever and a virtual national title semifinal game to boot, I see the Crimson Tide keeping it close but not lighting a cigar.

   Gators 24, Tide 17.

   Am I close to your prediction?

   As for Tebow's Heisman chances, I think he can overcome Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, but it will take some heroics or huge numbers. I don't envision the latter, but a game-winning drive capped by him bulling across the end zone would send a second trophy back to Gainesville.

   How do you evaluate Tebow and the Heisman? 

Will the 'Dog Have Its Day?

   As Percy Harvin's chances of playing Saturday rise and fall daily like the Dow Jones average, here is more on the eye-opening 10-point favoritism bestowed by oddsmakers on Florida against Alabama.

   There is recent precedent for a No. 1 team to enter a game as a double-digit underdog. In the 2001 Orange Bowl, top-ranked Oklahoma was a 10-point 'dog to No. 2 Florida State. In a good omen for Bama, the Sooners triumphed 13-2.

   A story in the Palm Beach Post quoted one oddsmaker as saying he and four colleagues agreed Sunday that the Gators deserved the status of 10-point faves. This doesn't mean they believe Florida is superior by that amount, only that equal amounts of money will be wagered at that number on each team.

   If you were a betting man, who would you side with?

   As far Harvin, I wouldn't put it past Urban Meyer to be playing games with the media on his condition. Any crafty coach would do the same.

   Harvin, indeed, is the X factor -- with the game itself and for those who bet on it.

   Do you believe Harvin will play? And, if so, be effective?

Gators Favored By 10? Here Is Why

   The nation's No. 1 team is a 10-point underdog to the No. 4 team. Huh?

   Yes, those who invest on the outcomes of college football and side with Florida in the SEC championship game are counting on a Gators' win by at least 11 points.

   And those who support Alabama with their hard-earned bucks can collect if the Tide loses by up to nine points.

   What do you think about the betting line?

   At first blush, it's hard to believe, especially with Florida's Percy Harvin ailing.

   But, all season long, oddsmakers have gradually elevated the spread on Gator games to head-scratching level -- and Florida keeps covering. UF went 9-2 against the line, a shocking record given how most teams hover around .500 in this category.

   Another factor is that coach Urban Meyer never calls off the dogs when victory is sealed. He plays to the final horn, so the Gators often score garbage points against a deflated or second-string defense.

   So, if Florida leads by a touchdown late in Saturday's game, Meyer will keep trying to make it two TDs.

   It's an approach beloved by Florida betting backers.

   If you were wagering, which team would you favor?

   Anybody think Bama will win straight up?

   

You Couldn't Draw This Up Any Better

   Ultimately, it doesn't matter if Florida is ranked only fourth in the BCS while getting No. 2 recognition by the Associated Press poll.

   The winner of the SEC title face-off Saturday is surely headed to the national championship game.

   It's essentially a BCS semifinal at the Georgia Dome, with the winner playing Oklahoma, Texas or Southern Cal for all the marbles. Alabama is in with a win, of course, and Florida's computer ranking jumps up with a victory over No. 1.

    Now that the BCS ratings have settled that much, we're left to wonder on the point spread for Saturday (Gators by a touchdown over Bama?) and the status of Percy Harvin (will an ankle injury sideline the scary receiver/running back?).

   And ask ourselves: Is this the most anticipated league title showdown ever? (It is to me.)

   One loss between them, Florida against Ole Miss. Two sky-high rankings. Two brilliant coaches, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer. A delicious contrast in styles, Bama's traditional offense and the Gators' spread.

   Both did their part with wins by 30 points or more Saturday. Alabama flat-out crushed Auburn 36-0. Florida overcame adverse weather conditions and a hatin' crowd by smacking Florida State 45-15.

   Six days to kickoff. Counting down the seconds already.

   What's your key to the outcome?

   Would Harvin's absence make a big difference?

   How much would you pay for a seat in the Georgia Dome?

    

Rain May Make Saturday Predictions All Wet

   Predicted rain across the Southeast on the final Saturday of the regular season could impact games to different degrees.

   --For No. 1, Alabama, its power running game should not be thrown off against Auburn. The Tigers' only winning scenario is a 17-14 type of game, but they would have trouble hitting that total under sunny skies. Weather edge to Alabama.

   Worried, Crimson Tide fans?

   --For Tennessee, showers could put a damper on Philip Fulmer Appreciation Day and help Kentucky, which can get off the bowl fence with a victory.

   Now, for the three intrastate rival games:

   --Georgia Tech, which hardly ever passes, could benefit the most. The Yellow Jackets, who employ a post-modern wishbone offense, would welcome a slippery field against Georgia, which throws the 'skin extremely well.

   --Multi-faceted Florida is unlikely to be affected by any inclement weather, short of a blizzard. That won't happen in Tallahassee against Florida State.

  --With South Carolina, who knows? Steve Spurrier will X-and-O to the death to beat Clemson, but the Tigers have greater incentive assuming they want to remove the interim tag from coach Dabo Swinney.

    Which of the three SEC teams is most likely to stumble against their stately neighbors?

   Then there is the SEC-ACC brain bowl, Vanderbilt vs. Wake Forest. These are smart people, right? So they'll figure out how to cope with rainy conditions.

   One more thing: Can Florida climb higher than No. 2 with a butt-whipping of the Seminoles?

    

    

A Lawrence Welk Championship: A-One and A-Two?

   Thank you for trying, Associated Press voters. You elevated Florida to No. 2 behind top-ranked Alabama in your latest poll, potentially setting up the most scrumptious SEC championship game in league annals.

   Pending the outcome of this week's games -- the Crimson Tide versus Auburn, the Gators against Florida State -- the ballots move the SEC closer to locking up a BCS championship game berth. If the Atlanta-bound pair avoid upsets on Saturday, your favorite league will be represented in the BCS title game.

   What are the chances of Bama and Florida stumbling Saturday?

   The Harris (coaches') poll did not agree with AP, situating Florida third behind Texas. And the computer-heavy BCS placed the Gators fourth behind the Longhorns and Oklahoma. Their opponent last Saturday, The Citadel, did them no strength-of-scheduling favors.

   In the long run, it won't matter where the Gators are today. Win, and they're in the Big One.

   Despite the Gators' recent pillaging and plundering, they may be the more vulnerable SEC finalist this week. Their starting defensive tackles may sit out with injuries, and FSU just hammered Maryland. Auburn can salvage something out of a joyless season by beating the Tide, but its offense is unlikely to bruise Bama's formidable defense.

   Who do you think the SEC champion would play in The Big One?

     

This Scenario Sucks: One SEC Team In BCS?

    You wouldn't be a college football fan if you are not losing sleep these days about your team or league getting screwed by the whack-job BCS system. A CBS Sportsline columnist has come up with a plausible chain of events that could leave Florida out of the big picture.

    Frankly, any two-loss team should not have any complaints. On the other hand, should the Gators win out in the regular season and lose on a buzzer-beating field goal to Alabama, they would no doubt be considered among the nation's elite eight.

   Would that be unfair to the Gators?

   Another less than farfetched outcome is one-loss Southern Cal getting left out in the cold. That's a problem to be discussed on a Pac-10 blog but is included here to point out that the system does not pretend to be fair.

   It does strive to assure a legitimate title game, and here's hoping one emerges.

   Should the NCAA and ESPN have waited until a discussion driven by the president-elect played out before signing a deal through 2014 that effectively shuts out a playoff?  

He's No Saint Nick

   Alabama coach Nick Saban supposedly uttered a four-letter word that rhymes with spit and snit last week at fans' suggestion that the Crimson Tide might be looking past Mississippi State to the Auburn and Florida games.

   The $4 million man apologized, to a degree, but got his point across. The Tide pounded Mississippi State to maintain their No. 1 rating.

  Does Bama deserve it?

   Saban's lads can pour more sodium in Auburn's wounds by officially denying the Tigers a bowl bid in what could be their seventh loss. Not that Tommy Tuberville would wish to extend this dreadful season.

   Can Auburn gather the troops to ruin Alabama's season and salvage something for itself?

    

The Greater Gators

   You read it here first. Well, maybe not first, but pretty damn early: Florida over Alabama in the Georgia Dome.

   The soon-to-be betting public apparently agrees. ESPN checked with oddsmakers, who say the Crimson Tide would be at least a touchdown underdog to other BCS championship game contenders.

   As for Florida, it would be favored against everybody but the one most likely to be left out in the cold: Southern Cal. USC would be punished by its weak Pac-10 schedule, over which it has no control.

   Do you think Florida or Alabama would get lanced by the Trojans?

   It can be cruel, this BCS system. (Am I right, people?) Speaking of which . . . 

A Playoff System? Fahgeddaboutit

   The pending deal between ESPN and the BCS to carry the big bowl games through 2014 forestalls a college playoff deep into the next decade. Here is why that's slightly bad news for the SEC:

   A plus-one system, favored by league commissioner Mike Slive, or a straight four-team mini-tournament almost surely would include an SEC member. The conference is too strong to be excluded from a final four, which means it would have a shot at the title each year.

   The current system, confined to a one-off championship game, is dicier for the league. Its own title game can just as easily eliminate a BCS contender as affirm one.

   The stars aligned for the SEC this year in that, barring a late-season collapse by Alabama and Florida, whoever wins in Atlanta is BCS-bound. Not so in other seasons.

   Your thoughts on an expanded playoff as it relates to the SEC?

   And why wait for SEC title talk? Who do you like in the Georgia Dome?

      

Take a (Short) Breath This Weekend

   The SEC schedule is absent a blockbuster, can't-miss (unless you have a hot date) game. But one is alluring and three others significant.

   --South Carolina's Steve Spurrier returns to the Swamp with a decent bunch whose sole loss in the last six games was to LSU. He will combat Florida's raucous crowds by alternating quarterbacks, allowing the ol' ball coach to convey the play on the sidelines.

   Some staggering statistics speak to Florida's dominance in its past five outings. Here's one you may not have heard: In the first quarters, it's the Gators 80, opponents zero.

   On the subject of stats, the Gamecocks boast the league's primo defense. For Florida, that will be a red cape being waved in front of a bull.

   Do the 'Cocks have a chance?

   --Surprise: Alabama has been whupped two straight by Miss'ippi State. In their past three encounters, the Crimson Tide is without an offensive touchdown. Bama has locked up the SEC West title, but a defeat would shatter its national title aspirations.

   Is there any way Bama can lose?

   --Georgia can push Auburn to the brink of getting shut out from the bowls. The Tigers would dip to 5-6, with Bama left on the schedule. Now that Phil Fulmer is toast Tommy Tuberville is the only SEC coach whose job hands in jeopardy. 

   Should Tuberville be replaced if the Tigers go 5-7, or even 6-6?

   --The prize to the Kentucky-Vanderbilt winner is bowl eligibility, though the loser will get another chance. Each plays Tennessee later.

   Meantime, the Volunteers are idle -- officially. It only seems that they have been the past several weeks.

   Excited about a no-loss Saturday, Vol fans?

   --    

Alabama-Florida: Start The Drumroll

   Let me be the first (or maybe the second or third) to say Florida will flummox Alabama in the SEC title game at the Georgia Dome.

   A standing O to the Crimson Tide for an amazing win at LSU under immense pressure. (Didn't Nick Saban have more state troopers protecting him from the LSU loonies than the quarterbacks had linemen surrounding them?) Credit to the stout Tide defense and to resourceful quarterback John Parker Wilson.

   Still, Bama won in large part because of an LSU hole at quarterback. Freshman Jared Lee ain't ready for SEC prime time, yet the Tide still had to go into OT for the win.

   In Nashville, Florida led Vandy 35-0 after 18 minutes. The Gators have beaten their last four SEC foes by 30-points-plus each. Tim Tebow is playing like the Heisman Trophy winner he was last season.

   Nick Saban has a young squad that has exceeded expectations by a country mile. Urban Meyer has a championship-ready team that is ripping through the SEC like a tornado.

   Go (to the national title game), Gators.

   Who's your pick?

   

Rank Observations: Difference of Opinion

   Musings about the latest ratings, out Sunday:  

 --The humans think more of Alabama than the computers. The Tide is rated first before flesh-and-blood voters, second in computer rankings behind Texas Tech.

   Agree with mankind or machine?

  --Florida is third, one spot above Texas, in the Associated Press, while in reverse order in the BCS poll. No matter who's ahead now, we could do a lot worse than see them 1-2, either way, after the season. What a scrumptious title game that would be. (But after my eyeballs popped out at the sight of Texas Tech's offense Saturday night, give me the Red Raiders in the BCS showdown.)

   Who would you put third?

    --Georgia remains much higher in the BCS (10th) than AP (13th) because computers factor in strength of schedule more than humans.

   Which is on the money with Georgia?

   --LSU remains in the top 20 in both despite three losses, which speaks to the SEC's strength.  

Alabama-LSU: Tighter Than A . . .

I want to pick LSU over Alabama. I really do. Sometimes, you can just smell an upset coming. Let's see if my nostrils are deceiving me.
1. Tigers fans, notoriously intimidating under normal circumstances, will unleash flat-out hatred for Bama coach Nick Saban. )Which I don't get. The guy delivered a national title to Bayou country.) The Crimson Tide are unbeaten on the road. (Not to mention at home.)
2. LSU has the No. 1 rusher in the SEC, based on yards per carry: Charles Scott (6.7). The Crimson Tide has the next best: Glen Coffee (6.6).
3. LSU ranks third in the SEC in rushing defense. Bama's offensive line averages 308 pounds per man and creates holes that an elephant could burst through.
4. LSU has allowed 50 points in two of its games. No. 1-ranked teams are 2-2 the past four weeks.
5. Tigers premier linebacker Darry Beckwith is back from injury. The Tide's ferocious nose tackle, Terrance Cody, is expected back from injury.
For each point, there is a counter-point. I think the difference will be (a.) Bama's cool quarterback, John Parker Wilson, and LSU redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee, who has thrown five picks returned for touchdowns, and (b.) Nick Saban somehow outfoxing the estimable Les Miles with a team relying on only nine scholarship seniors.
Bama by a touchdown.

High(est) Tide: Bama Rules

   The team that SEC media predicted would finish third in the SEC West? Today, it lords over America as the top-rated team in the BCS.

   Alabama has all but assured itself a gig in the national championship game if it can win out. The two other noted unbeatens, No. 2 Texas Tech and No. 3 Penn State, are unlikely to nose out the Tide if all three attain regular season perfection.

   In a year of dazzling offenses, concentrated in the Big 12, Bama is not wowing anyone. But its defense is lights-out and should only be tested twice more, Saturday at LSU and in the SEC title game, likely against Florida.

   The Gators' spanking of Georgia lifted them to No. 5, behind Texas, in the BCS. (The AP poll reverses that order.) Both teams are solidly in the BCS picture, especially with the Red Raiders' next three foes only slightly less scary than the Longhorns team they beat Saturday.

  Do you have any beef with the rankings?

   No. 14 Georgia and No. 15 LSU are hanging on by a fingernail for a BCS bowl appearance. The Tigers have the better chance because a win over Bama would hoist them in the poll.

   The guess here is that even a No. 1-rated Alabama would be an underdog against the Gators in Atlanta.

   What's your take on that potentially juicy matchup?  

Rating Non-League Schedules: And The Toughest Goes To ...

   With blather about BCS rankings soon to reach a crescendo, much of the debate deals with teams' schedules outside of their league. The degree of difficulty can be a make-or-break for school vying for big bowls.

   Though the season is far from over, many SEC schools have concluded their non-league agenda. So, let's rate each member's outside-the-family games, from easiest to hardest.

   12.) Kentucky: Louisville (good), Middle Tennessee (OK), Western Kentucky (just out of Division 1, formerly known as 1-AA), AA), Norfolk State (Division I). Too many creampuffs.

   11.) LSU: Troy (decent), Tulane (not), North Texas (maybe the weakest on the top level), Appalachian State (Div. 1, but a good one). Not a single stiff test in the bunch.

  10.) Alabama: Clemson (overrated at start of season), Tulane and Western Kentucky (see above), Arkansas State (weak). Sure miss the Bama-Southern Cal classics.

   9.) Ole Miss: Wake Forest (underachiever), Memphis (OK), Louisiana-Monroe (weak), Samford (Div. 1). The Deacons turned out not to be Demons.

   8.) Mississippi State: Georgia Tech (very good), Middle Tennessee (see above), Lousiana Tech (weak), Southeast Louisiana (Div. 1). Big drop-off after the Yellow Jackets.

   7.) Tennessee: UCLA (relative softie in BCS), Northern Illinois (OK), UAB and Wyoming (both pushovers). If not for these, Phil Fulmer might be gone already.

   6.) South Carolina: Clemson (disappointing), North Carolina State (ACC punching bag), UAB (weak), Wofford (Div. 1). Credit to Gamecocks for its par of ACC foes.

   5.) Auburn: West Virginia (very good), Southern Miss (weak), Louisiana-Monroe (weak), Tennessee-Martin (Div. 1). Big drop-off after the Mountaineers.

  4.) Georgia: Georgia Tech (very good), Arizona State (disappointing), Central Michigan (decent), Georgia Southern (Div. 1). When season kicked off, Bulldogs might have been No. 1.

   3.) Vanderbilt: Duke (ascending), Wake Forest (see above), Miami Ohio (weak), Rice (weaker). Credit to Commodores for two ACC schools, though one (Duke) unexpectedly tough.

   2.) Florida: Florida State and Miami (getting better), Hawaii (rebuilding), The Citadel (Div. 1). Two in-state rivalries always puts the Gators near the front.

   1.) Arkansas: Texas (doesn't get harder than this), unbeaten Tulsa (surprise!), Louisiana-Monroe (see above), Western Illinois (Div. 1). Splitting your non-league games is not good.

   Thoughts on the list? Have we overrated anyone? Underrated?

   Overall, it seems as if the SEC has gone soft. Hard to blame schools, given that the league schedule is such a gauntlet. Still, challenging non-conference matchups are few and far between.

   Agree? Or should SEC teams go the easy route?

 

   

And Then There Were Three (We Think)

   What do Alabama and Obama have in common, besides their similarity in name?

   Both are close enough to the prize to taste it.

   The Crimson Tide can clinch the West with a victory in its next league game. Won't be easy -- at LSU Nov. 8 -- but the Tigers are struggling ay quarterback and have allowed a 50-spot to Florida and Georgia.

   Is it in the bag for Bama?

   Even with a loss to LSU, the Tide should walk over Mississippi State and slap around fading Auburn, which would put them in the league championship game against . . .

   Florida? Georgia? We should find out Saturday in a monster match-up between the league's most explosive offenses and inventive coaches.

   Urban Meyer placed a gag order Sunday on the Gators, which speaks loud and clear on the importance he places on the game. Don't expect Mark Richt to follow suit -- he doesn't want to be seen as an imitator -- but he surely will warn the Dawgs to watch their words.

   The main pollsters and the BCS people differ on the worth of the teams. AP (writers) and USA Tuday (coaches) view the Gators better -- by three slots, in AP's case. The BCS prefers Georgia, in front of Florida by two spots.

   Who do you like?

   Those anticipating the SEC championship can start gearing up for the winner versus Nick Saban's crew. Maybe President Obama will toss the coin.

     

     

It's A Locke: Kentucky's Done

   While Alabama nation is beside itself over the knee injury to SUV-sized nose guard Terrence "Mount" Cody, he is projected to miss only two games. (The first is against Tennessee, which deserves a break.)

   The real painful SEC down-and-outer is Kentucky tailback Derrick Locke, gone for the season with a knee injury. One week after the Wildcats bade a teary goodbye to top receiver Dicky Lyons Jr., they must replace their foremost ball-carrier. Kentucky has no shot at Florida on Saturday.

   Will the Wildcats win another game? 

BCS Buzz: No Love for Florida, LSU?

   Jumping off the page with the first BCS rankings released Sunday is Florida, fifth in the new Associated Press poll, at No. 10. LSU also was treated less kindly by the BCS (13th) than by AP (11th).

   Outraged, Gators and Tigers fans?

   Strength of schedule partly explains it. A panel of college football watchers with CBS Sportsline regards Florida's schedule as the nation's 39th toughest and LSU's the 75th most difficult. Georgia, which is higher in the BCS (seventh) than AP (ninth), has the fifth most challenging schedule, in Sportsline's eyes.

   Also, the Bulldogs can claim six wins, one more than the Gators and Tigers. (All have one loss.)

   So, how does that explain Alabama at No. 2 with the 53rd-ranked schedule by Sportsline?

   Well, the Crimson Tide have won seven games without fail. And they get credit for a neutral-field victory over then-No. 9 Clemson, severely overrated in retrospect.

   And, let's face it, the Alabama name carries cachet with old-timey pollsters.

   Of the Tide's remaining schedule, only LSU looks scary. So, as shaky as Bama has been lately (see next item), its No. 2 BCS recognition is understandable. 

   One thing is clear: Nobody but Texas belongs at No. 1.

   Agreed?