Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Should Georgia Bulldogs be ranked No. 1?

My college football guru, Beano Cook, enlightened me years ago that forecasting a national champion boiled down to one factor.
Think of your real estate agent's mantra -- "location, location, location." In the prediction game, it's "schedule, schedule, schedule."
Georgia has been honored (burdened?) with the preseason No. 1 rating. Half of its 12 opponents are ranked, three in the top 10. The Dawgs commute to five of those six games. Tack on an SEC title match, and no team ever will have survived a comparably gory gauntlet en route to the pot of gold on the back end.
Let's examine the skeds of Nos. 2 through 5.
Southern Cal gets all three of its ranked foes (Ohio State, Oregon, Arizona State) at home. Same with Oklahoma (Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech).
The Buckeyes travel to confront its three (USC, Wisconsin, Illinois) but dabble in the softer Big Ten. Florida's once daunting non-SEC quiniela of Miami and Florida State no longer strikes fear, and its sole ranked obstacle on the road is No. 18 Tennessee.
Georgia does benefit from the expanded 12 games per team that often allows for one misstep by a school with a lofty strength of schedule. So, if no two members of the power conferences sweep through their seasons unscathed, the Dawgs likely would land in the BCS title tilt with one defeat.
Take another look at the schedule from Hades (including a 13th game in the SEC championship). I see two losses. I don't envision Georgia in the exclusive location, location, location of national champion.
Do you?

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